Double Chance only exists in markets with three possible outcomes — overwhelmingly football, though it turns up in some cricket and rugby markets too. Instead of picking a single result, you buy two of the three: home-or-draw (1X), away-or-draw (X2), or home-or-away (12, sometimes called “draw no bet’s noisier cousin” even though it isn’t the same bet). One stake, one line on the coupon, and you win if either of your two results lands.

The mechanism is simple once you see it: the sportsbook takes the two single-result prices you’re combining, works out the combined probability of winning, and prices the double chance accordingly. Because you’re now favored to win roughly two times out of three in most matches, the odds are short — often between 1.10 and 1.60 — and they get shorter still the more lopsided the original match odds were. A double chance on a heavy favorite covering the draw might barely clear 1.10; a double chance on two evenly matched teams covering the draw can still pay north of 1.90.

Bettors reach for double chance in two very different situations. The first is genuine hedging: you like a team but you’re nervous about a draw, so 1X removes the outcome that would otherwise cost you the bet. The second is value-hunting against short-priced favorites in cup football, where a big club might be 1.30 to win outright but 12 (they win or lose, just not draw) can be surprisingly close to evens against a stubborn lower-league side that parks the bus. Either way, you’re not eliminating risk — you’re trading potential profit for a wider net.

Example

Take a Premier League fixture: Arsenal host Newcastle. The three-way match odds are Arsenal 1.80, Draw 3.75, Newcastle 4.50.

Converting those to implied probability: 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.6% for Arsenal, 1 ÷ 3.75 = 26.7% for the draw, 1 ÷ 4.50 = 22.2% for Newcastle. Add them up and you get 104.5% — the extra 4.5% is the bookmaker’s margin.

Now build the double chance line for 1X (Arsenal win or draw). Add Arsenal’s probability to the draw’s: 55.6% + 26.7% = 82.2%. Fair odds for an 82.2% chance would be 1 ÷ 0.822 = 1.22, but the book folds its margin into this combined price too, so it’s actually offered at 1.20.

A bettor stakes $50 on 1X at 1.20. Two scenarios:

  • Arsenal win or the match is drawn: the bet returns $50 × 1.20 = $60, a profit of $10.
  • Newcastle win: the $50 stake is lost.

Compare that to simply backing Arsenal to win outright at 1.80. The same $50 would return $90 (a $40 profit) if Arsenal win — but it would lose on both a draw and a Newcastle win, not just one. The double chance bettor gave up $30 of potential profit in exchange for insuring against the draw. Whether that trade is worth it depends entirely on how likely you think the draw actually is compared to the 26.7% the market has priced in — if you think it’s closer to 35%, the double chance is the sharper bet; if you think it’s overpriced at 20%, you’re better off taking Arsenal straight.

Key Points

  • You’re buying insurance, not value: double chance odds are built directly from the underlying 1X2 prices, so you never get more than the market already implies — you’re paying to remove one losing outcome, not finding an edge.
  • It shines against strong favorites you’re not fully sure of: in a Champions League last-16 first leg where the home side is 1.35 but away goals or a defensive setup make a draw plausible, 1X can be a more comfortable way to back the favorite than the outright win price.
  • Don’t confuse it with Draw No Bet: 12 (double chance) still loses your full stake if the match is drawn — you’re simply not backing the draw, unlike Draw No Bet, which refunds your stake on a draw. Mixing the two up is one of the most common new-bettor errors.
  • The shorter the double chance price, the smaller the edge for error: anything priced below 1.15 barely beats parking your money — check whether the outright favorite price, taken with a bit more nerve, offers a meaningfully better return for only slightly more risk.
  • It’s a poor fit for two-way sports: tennis, basketball, and most American sports don’t have a draw, so there’s no third outcome to hedge — double chance only makes sense wherever a draw or tie is a live possibility, chiefly football and some cricket formats.
  • Combine it with your own draw estimate, not the market’s: before backing 1X or X2, form your own view of how likely the draw is; if your number is higher than the book’s implied 26-27%, the double chance is doing real work for you, and if it’s lower, you’re just paying for peace of mind.